Your picks are in — and the narrative is clear. Saturday morning is powerhouse day. Saturday afternoon has one genuinely wild wildcard flight. And Sunday morning is where it gets decided.

The runaway favourites — all on Saturday AM

Six crews are backed by 80%+ in their flights, and every single one is racing in the Saturday morning session:

  • Washington 1V4 — 89%. The most confident pick of the entire weekend.
  • California 1V8 — 85%.
  • Washington 1V8 — 84%.
  • Stanford 1V8 — 84%.
  • California 1V4 — 82%.
  • Stanford 1V4 — 81%.

Stanford keep the form up into the afternoon too, tipped at 78% in the 1V8 and 74% in the 1V4. Between Washington, Stanford and California, the picks have the three coastal programs winning nine of their ten Saturday flights at a canter.

Rutgers carry the "best of the rest" tag on Saturday morning — 53% in the 1V4 Flight 3 and 56% in the 1V8 Flight 3, both against Notre Dame, Ohio State, San Diego and UCLA. Not a blowout, but the clearest Big Ten pick outside the big three.

Sunday AM — where the powers collide

Here's why Sunday is the day. After two Saturday runaway wins each, Washington and Stanford finally share water in the Sunday AM lead flights — and the picks barely separate them:

  • 1V4 Sunday AM Flight 1 — Washington 44% | Stanford 36% | California 12% | Rutgers 5% | Michigan 3%.
  • 1V8 Sunday AM Flight 1 — Washington 38% | Stanford 34% | California 13% | Rutgers 12% | Michigan 4%.

Two flights. Some of the strongest programs in US collegiate rowing on the start line together. No crew above 44%. These are the races that will settle the mid-season pecking order.

The most open races on the card

A handful of flights are wide open — nobody above 40%:

  • 1V4 Saturday PM Flight 3 — USC 28% | Wisconsin 25% | San Diego 17% | Michigan State 16% | Washington State 14%. The single most open race of the weekend. All five crews are live.
  • 1V8 Saturday PM Flight 3 — Wisconsin 32% | USC 20% | San Diego 19% | Michigan State 15% | Washington State 13%. Same group of crews, same scramble.
  • 1V8 Sunday AM Flight 2 — Ohio State 38% | Michigan State 23% | Notre Dame 14% | Oregon State 13% | Indiana 12%. Ohio State just ahead, but deeply contested.
  • 1V4 Sunday AM Flight 4 — Wisconsin 38% | San Diego 30% | Iowa 23% | Sacramento State 10%. Wisconsin the thinnest of the Sunday morning leaders.

Spare a thought for…

USC 1V4 in Saturday AM Flight 2: 0%. Literally nobody picked them — they're in the Stanford flight, but even so, a full goose-egg is harsh. A single win there and USC ruin a lot of perfect Saturday mornings.

Elsewhere, Iowa, Notre Dame and Oregon State 1V8s are all on 1.18% against Stanford in Saturday PM Flight 2. Pick-a-bolter territory if you've got nothing to lose.

What to watch

Saturday morning sets the baseline — Washington, Stanford, Cal and Rutgers winning is almost priced in, and any slip-up in those flights will rewrite the leaderboard instantly. Saturday afternoon the middle-tier flights turn scrappy. But Sunday morning is the real test!

Strap in — and don't sleep on those 1% picks.