Saturday Summary: the Lead Shrinks to 4 Points

Yesterday, 24 players were level on 111. Tonight only one of them is the leader, and only just.

The standings — top of the hill

The full 24-way tie has shattered into a leaderboard that's still tight enough to flip on a single Monday final. 13 points separate first from fifth — barely more than two races at championship-final scoring. If it's like this at the end of tomorrow, then Monday is the regatta.

How Grum. got there

Eight finals were decided today, and Grum. nailed seven of them — including the one that mattered most. The Open Beginner 4+ was Saturday's most-contested race, splitting the field eight ways. Surrey A came home and Grum. had them. So did fergusmainland, Chadland and BFWBeluga.

CLURRACKS didn't. Their one Saturday miss — Sheffield A in the same Open Beginner 4+ — is the entire reason they're chasing instead of leading. Surrey A was a 17% pick going into the day; Sheffield A was 3%. The contrarian-but-correct call put Grum. four points clear, and that's been the gap from the moment Surrey A crossed the line.

How the rest got pinned

Each of the chasing four had a single Saturday miss that's keeping them off the top step:

• CLURRACKS (317) — backed Sheffield A over Surrey A in the Open Beginner 4+. Got Cambridge A right in the Women's Intermediate 2-, where Grum. picked Durham A and lost.
• fergusmainland (311) — caught out by the Women's Championship 2-. Picked Durham A; Edinburgh delivered. Cost ~10 points and the lead.
• Chadland (311) — the boldest call of the day, and the only one in the top five that didn't land: backed Durham over Brookes A in the Open Championship 8+. Brookes A held. Chadland's pick is the kind of swing that wins regattas - Does anyone remember me mentioning Durham bias earlier in the week?
• BFWBeluga (308) — went 8/8 on Saturday but bleeds from older choices: backed Reading A over Reading E in the Women's Championship 1x, and Cambridge A in the Women's Championship Lightweight 4- where Birmingham A took the title. Past misses still showing on the cumulative.

What Saturday actually proved

The crowd-favourite locks all delivered: Brookes A in both the Open Intermediate 8+ and Open Championship 8+, Reading A in the Open Championship 1x, Reading A in the Women's Championship 4x. Anyone who agreed with everyone bagged the points. The races that decided the standings were the contested ones, exactly as Friday's preview flagged — Open Beginner 4+, Women's Intermediate 2-, Women's Championship 2-. Three races, three different leaders' misses. The lead group is shaped by who guessed those right.

Sunday and Monday — the bigger half

14 finals still to come, split across Sunday and Monday vs. 8 done today. The top five disagree on most of them:

• Open Championship 4+ — Grum. and BFWBeluga on London; CLURRACKS on Durham A; fergusmainland and Chadland on Newcastle. Three-way split.
• Women's Championship 8+ — Grum. and fergusmainland on London; CLURRACKS and BFWBeluga on Newcastle; Chadland alone on Brookes.
• Women's Championship 4- — four different picks across the five players. Wide open.
• Women's Championship 2x — Grum. is the lone wolf on Bath; the others split Reading A and Reading B.

A 4-point lead doesn't survive disagreements like those. With two days of racing still to come, the lead group is going to fragment further before this regatta is decided. Whoever calls the most contested championship finals — Sunday or Monday — wins it. Grum. has the lead. Nobody has it locked.

SuperLeague — Saturday flipped the table

Friday night had Reading Uni leading at 546 with Brookes (520), Durham (515), Newcastle (514) and Edinburgh (481) chasing. After today's racing, the order is completely reshuffled:

Newcastle vaulted from #4 to #1. Reading lost the lead by just 7 points. Edinburgh climbed two places. Brookes and Durham both slipped two places despite their crews' Saturday wins. The whole top three sits within 36 points — Reading's old 26-point cushion is gone, and the squad title is genuinely up for grabs.

Reading aren't getting away. Newcastle aren't safe. With two days of championship racing still to come, the squad title is going to come down to one or two contested finals — and they could land on either day.

Good racing tomorrow.