Monday Preview

Six players sit inside 19 points of the top. Six fantasy finals are on today's card. The top of the leaderboard disagrees on most of them. Whoever calls Monday's contested championships wins it.

The standings going into the final day

The Locks

Open Championship 4x scullers and Reading A's flagship pair lock in early.

Women's Championship 2x - Reading A | 66.76% (Final A, 13:36). Meg Knight already has the Women's Champ 4x in her column from Saturday and two-thirds of the room is on it. Bath (Rebekah Court) at 5.22% is the most-picked counter, with Hartpury (4.95%), Reading B (4.67%) and Durham (4.67%) splitting the contrarian vote. Birmingham's Kathryn Mole — fresh off winning the Women's Champ 1x at 8.33% - is sitting at 2.75% in this race. If Reading A misses, the leaderboard shape changes dramatically.

Open Intermediate Lightweight 4x — Reading A (Oli Snoxall) | 64.34% (Final A, 13:48). Five of the top six picked Reading A here. rowenaprice is the lone wolf on Nottingham A (Harry Junor, 5.94%) — the only chance for fragmentation in the lead group on this race. Queen's (Stevie Edgar, 14.73%) is the most-credible spoiler.

Open Intermediate 2- - Durham A (Rupert Apps) | 44.81% (Final A, 14:00). Not quite a lock at sub-50%, but the favourite by some distance. The chasing pack is unusually fragmented — Bath A (Stradling) at 15.30%, Brookes (Lawton) at 8.20%, Newcastle A (Bowes) at 7.38%, London A (Kelly) at 4.64% — meaning if Durham A misses, the points spread thinly across a wide contrarian field. The top six are split: Grum. and rowenaprice on Newcastle A; pgvortextips solo on Bath A; Chadland, Lewis N and fergusmainland on Durham A.

The Toss-Ups

Open Championship 2- — five crews inside 11 percentage points (Final A, 14:12). The contested race of the day:

• Durham A (William Morgan-Jones) — 26.85%
• Newcastle (Gwilym Johnson) — 20.00%
• Oxford Brookes University A (Sam Gater) — 18.36%
• London (Theo Doyle) — 10.14%
• Cambridge (Seth Delap) — 8.22%
• Imperial (Henry Barham) — 5.75%

Five of the top six are on Newcastle. Chadland is solo on Durham A. If Newcastle hold, Chadland slips a place. If Durham A take it, Chadland gets the swing. If anyone else wins — Brookes, London, Cambridge — the entire top six takes a null and the standings hold.

Women's Championship 4- — five-way split, Durham favourite (Final A, 14:36). The most fragmented of the day at the top of the table:

• Durham (Tabitha Butterfill) — 24.73%
• Oxford Brookes University (Sophie Reinehr) — 16.03%
• Cambridge A (Charlotte Ebel) — 13.32%
• London (Tilly Ollerenshaw) — 11.68%
• Oxford (Julietta Camahort) — 8.97%
• Newcastle (Megan Johnston) — 8.70%
• Edinburgh (Penny Irvine) — 7.34%

Top six split three ways: Grum., pgvortextips and Chadland on Durham; Lewis N on London; rowenaprice and fergusmainland on Oxford. No two players in the chasing pack agree on the same answer. Whichever crew wins, at least one of the top six gets a clean swing — and the rest take a hit.

Women's Beginner 8+ — Edinburgh and Queen's the favourites, Surrey lurking (Final A, 13:12). The leading call sits at just under 24%:

• Edinburgh (Rebecca Strachan) — 23.85%
• Surrey (Olivia Dove) — 16.67%
• Queen's (Michelle Taylor) — 15.64%
• Brookes (Millie Mackay) — 8.46%
• Bath A (Lucy Nuttall) — 6.92%
• Cambridge (Rachel Mellor) — 6.15%
• Exeter A (Lilia Felfel) — 5.13%

Top six split: three on Edinburgh (Grum., pgvortextips, Chadland), one on Queen's (Lewis N), two on Surrey (rowenaprice, fergusmainland). Two upset paths to swing the leaderboard, plus a four-way long tail of contrarian picks.

It could be anyone's day

A 1-point lead doesn't survive this level of disagreement. There are at least three results today that move two or more of the top six and so many opportunities for an outsider to rocket up the leaderboard - don't be surprised if the post-race round-up features some completely new characters!

SuperLeague — three-way fight on the final day

Sunday's eights flipped the squad standings to: Newcastle 2,114 | Brookes 2,103 | Durham 2,090 | Reading 2,082 | Birmingham 2,036 | Edinburgh (out of top five). Newcastle lead by 11.

Monday's contested championships hand the title to whoever picks them right:

• Newcastle are exposed. Open Champ 2- has Newcastle (Gwilym Johnson) at 20% — Newcastle members generally bet heavily on Newcastle, but Durham A is the room favourite. The 0/18 hit rate on Newcastle's bias bets across the regatta is the warning sign. Their lead survives only if they hold the discipline on non-home picks. (although luckily their top 5 show no loyalty - the reason they lead is because of cold, calculated, unbiased predictions)
• Brookes sit 11 off. Brookes A in the Open Champ 2- is at 18.36% — if Brookes squad members back themselves and Brookes A delivers, that's the swing that takes the SuperLeague. Brookes' top 5 has gone 5-from-7 betting on themselves this regatta. Today is the next bet.
• Durham sit 24 off. Their Monday card is heavy: Durham A in Open Int 2- (45% favourite), Durham A in Open Champ 2- (27%, joint favourite), Durham (Tabitha Butterfill) in W Champ 4- (25%, favourite). Three home favourites. If two of them deliver, Durham could leapfrog into the top two; three of them and they take the title outright.
• Reading sit 32 off but have the day's two locks (Reading A in W Champ 2x and Open Int Lwt 4x). Both delivering keeps them in contention but probably not enough to climb above Brookes/Durham given the contested championships sit elsewhere.
• Birmingham sit at #5 with no obvious home swings remaining. Holding fifth means hoping form persists.

The race timeline

Three-and-a-bit hours of racing to decide both the individual title and the SuperLeague. Six players inside 19 of the lead. Five squads inside 78 of the top. Every contested final today moves at least one of them — and in three of the six races, the winner determines the title outright.

Our prediction:

Drama.