The Lenny Peters Cup — Predictions Preview
Billed as the Ryder Cup of Rowing, the Lenny Peters Cup is a day of racing between an All-Star U.S.A. team and a smorgasbord of talent from around the world. Two teams of eight, eight races across singles, doubles and quads, and every result feeding the cup leaderboard. Martin Cross and Aquil Abdullah are on commentary, live on YouTube.
In the overall competition singles are worth 1 point, doubles 2, and the mixed quads 3 — 14 points on the water in total. And going by your picks?
The World is tipped to run away with it.
The runaway favourites
Two crews are miles clear of their opponents:
- Martine Veldhuis (NED) in the Women's Single Race 2 — backed by 87% of you over Isa Darvin. (Note: Magdalena Lobnig was originally pencilled in but has been replaced by Veldhuis — we'll update the app as we learn more.)
- Grace Joyce (USA) in the Women's Single Race 1 — 83% over Beatriz Tavares.
Two of the biggest names on either team; two of the most lopsided picks on the card. If either of them loses, a lot of leaderboards will start the day with a 25-point hole.
The clear — but not certain — favourites
- Sholto Carnegie (UK) leads Cedar Cunningham 63/37 in Men's Single Race 1. The GB heavyweight star with weight of expectation on his back.
- The World Mixed Quads are favoured in both quad races — 61/39 in Race 1 and 64/36 in Race 2. Two of the biggest points-swings of the day if the U.S.A. can flip them.
The coin tosses
Three races are effectively a flip of a coin:
- Men's Single Race 2 — James Rudkin (UK) vs Sam Melvin (USA): 49/51. Melvin nudges ahead by the slimmest margin anyone's going to see today.
- Women's Double — Clark/Wasteneys (CAN) vs Vitas/Park (USA): 49/51. The U.S.A. pair just edge it.
- Men's Double — Plihal/Nollenberger (USA) vs Macovick/Pimenov (SRB): 46/54. Serbia the narrow favourite, but this one is live.
Three races, three near-flips, and enough points to swing the whole cup. Pick a side and pray.
Spare a thought for…
Isa Darvin (USA) at 13% against Veldhuis, and Beatriz Tavares (BRA) at 17% against Grace Joyce. The lowest-backed crews of the day, and the two racers most capable of ruining a lot of leaderboards.
The U.S.A. Mixed Quad Race 2 (Joyce, Nollenberger, Park, Melvin) also sits at a chilly 36% — the public has decided the World's quads are the story of the afternoon.
The cup picture — the points tell a lopsided story
On race count alone, the picks tip The World 5 wins to 3. Weight each race by its point value and the gap blows wide open:
| Race | Favourite | Pts |
|---|---|---|
| W Single R1 | Joyce (USA) | 1 |
| W Single R2 | Veldhuis (World) | 1 |
| M Single R1 | Carnegie (World) | 1 |
| M Single R2 | Melvin (USA) | 1 |
| W Double | Vitas/Park (USA) | 2 |
| M Double | Macovick/Pimenov (World) | 2 |
| Mixed Quad R1 | World | 3 |
| Mixed Quad R2 | World | 3 |
If every favourite wins, the cup finishes World 10 – USA 4. The World take both 3-point quads and two of the singles; the U.S.A.'s three wins are all tight calls worth a combined 4 points.
Factor in the actual pick percentages rather than a clean sweep and the expected score lands somewhere around World 8 – USA 6 — closer, because the coin-flips average out and Grace Joyce's 83% backing is almost a full point of U.S.A. value on its own. But still a World win.
What the U.S.A. needs
The maths is brutal: winning every single and double they're tipped for gets the U.S.A. to just 6 points. To lift the cup they have to steal at least one of the Mixed Quads — the two 3-pointers where the public has them pegged at 39% and 36%.
The quads are the story of the afternoon. Flip one, and this is a real fight. Flip both, and the All-Stars stage the upset of the year.
Strap in. Previews of 6 of the 8 races are live in the app — just tap into a prediction page to find them. Commentary from Cross and Abdullah is on YouTube. Let's see if the All-Stars can turn the tide.
