Chadland entered Monday in third place, thirteen points off the lead. She left Monday on top by ten.

Camilla went five-from-six on the day's contested championships - and won the regatta on a single lone-wolf call in the Open Championship 2- where everyone else got it wrong.

The final top five

Rank Player Final Mon gain
1 Chadland 586 +126
2 Grum. 576 +103
3 pgvortextips 570 +98
4 BenCook 563 new
5 fergusmainland 559 +105

BenCook is the new face — outside the top six going into Monday, climbed straight into 4th. Lewis N (#4 Sunday night) and rowenaprice (#5) both dropped out of the top five.

How the regatta was decided — the Open Championship 2-

The race we'd flagged in the Monday preview as the day's likely decider. Six top-six players going in, five of them on Newcastle (Gwilym Johnson). Chadland alone on Durham A (William Morgan-Jones) at 26.85% popularity.

Durham A took the race.

That's the title in one paragraph. Chadland banks championship-final points; the rest of the top five take a null. Net swing on a single result: roughly +25 points to her, zero to everyone else, in a regatta where the lead going in was thirteen.

Chadland missed only the Women's Championship 4-, where the upset went to Oxford (Julietta Camahort) at 8.97% — a contrarian crew nobody in the top five except fergusmainland had backed. fergusmainland's lone Oxford call was the second-biggest contrarian win of the day, and it's the reason he held onto fifth despite missing the Women's Beginner 8+ to Edinburgh.

Two contested-and-correct calls in a single day where the wider field got it wrong. Chadland found one in the Open Champ 2-. fergusmainland found one in the Women's Champ 4-.

The leader who slipped

Grum. led the regatta from Saturday morning through Sunday evening. Two days as leader. Sunday's preview had the Open Champ 4+ as "the killer detail" where none of the top five were on the favourite — and Brookes A duly rolled. They held the lead by getting the Women's Championship 8+ correct (London at 16.24%) and the Cambridge call in the Open Champ Lwt 4- on Sunday was the last real moment for them. Two upset calls a day was the hot hand from Saturday and Sunday. On Monday the luck ran out.

Bath in the Women's Champ 2x, Newcastle A in the Open Int 2-, Newcastle in the Open Champ 2- - All three were upset bets and none of them landed. Three races, three misses, +103 points on a Monday where Chadland went 5/6 for +126. The 13-point cushion eroded and a 10-point lead taken — that's the whole 23-point swing.

BenCook's climb

BenCook was outside the top six Sunday night. He climbed into 4th on Monday with four contested wins on the day: both Reading A 'sure things', Durham A in the Open Int 2-, and Edinburgh in the Women's Beg 8+. The Newcastle call in the Open Champ 2- and the London call in the Women's Champ 4- both missed, but four right on Monday's six was enough to vault past Lewis N and rowenaprice. New name in the headline cohort.

SuperLeague — Durham take it

Newcastle led the squad table going into Monday at 2,114 points. They finished fourth.

Rank Squad Top-5 Mon gain
1 Durham Uni 2,658 +568
2 Reading Uni 2,628 +546
3 Oxford Brookes University 2,611 +508
4 Newcastle Uni 2,561 +447
5 Edinburgh Uni 2,518 back in

(Sunday end: Newcastle 2,114, Brookes 2,103, Durham 2,090, Reading 2,082, Birmingham 2,036. Edinburgh and Birmingham swapped — Birmingham fell out, Edinburgh climbed back.)

Durham went #3 → #1, gaining 568 — the most of any squad. The Open Championship 2- decided the SuperLeague for the same reason it decided the individual title: Durham squad members were betting heavily on Durham A (+33.8pp bias going in), Durham A took the race. Plus the Open Intermediate 2- where Durham A was the 44.81% room favourite and duly delivered. Two contested home wins on a Monday card where Durham had three home favourites lined up. The Women's Championship 4- (Tabitha Butterfill, 24.73%) went Oxford's way; but two of three was enough.

Reading climbed from #4 to #2 on the deepest sculling card of the day. Reading A in the Women's Championship 2x (Knight, 66.76% favourite) and Open Intermediate Lightweight 4x (Snoxall, 64.34%) — Reading squad members were 100% on both per our analysis, both delivered. Across the whole regatta Reading A were the room favourite in seven sculling finals; six of them landed.

Newcastle dropped from #1 to #4. The Open Championship 2- bias bet (+49.3pp on Newcastle Gwilym Johnson) was their most-leveraged Monday call. Newcastle didn't win, Durham A did. The Open Intermediate 2- bet (+29.3 on Newcastle A) also missed. Two weighted home calls, both wrong.

Brookes slipped a place to #3. Their Monday home favourite was Sophie Reinehr in the Women's Championship 4- — Oxford took it. Brookes A's flagship hot hand from Sunday (4-, 4+, 8+ all delivered) didn't extend.

Edinburgh climbed back into #5 without a contested home championship on the Monday card. The points came from non-home pick discipline — the Reading A locks, the Brookes A flagship calls, plus Edinburgh in the Women's Beginner 8+ (their home crew, 23.85% favourite).

Birmingham fell out — seven members and no Monday home crews left them flat after the Mole and Birmingham A calls on Sunday.

Closing notes

Three days of racing, three different lone-wolf-and-correct calls decided the standings:

  • Saturday: Grum. on Surrey A in the Open Beginner 4+ (17%) — over a Sheffield A pick at 3% from CLURRACKS. The 4-point lead at the end of Saturday traces to that.
  • Sunday: Grum. on London in the Women's Championship 8+ (16.24%) — kept the lead alive when the Open Champ 4+ went away from them.
  • Monday: Chadland on Durham A in the Open Championship 2- (26.85%) — only player in the top five on the right side, took the title.

The first-value-moment of every fantasy regatta is the outside bet that pays off.

Champagne's earned. Thanks for playing.